What happens after the Jan 19th TikTok ban?

(Not a political post.)

One day before the presidential inauguration.

Google and Apple will block the TikTok app.

The sitting President signed legislation last Spring. 

Citing security concerns and covert content manipulation.

But an entire generation uses TikTok as a search engine.

Many businesses rely on it for a number of reasons.

It’s practically engrained in the culture.

So now what if TikTok goes away?

Many businesses rely on it for a number of reasons.

It’s practically engrained in the culture.

So now what if TikTok goes away?

Well, here are my thoughts:

1. 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗭 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗚𝗲𝗻𝗭. The significance of the GenZ relationship with TikTok isn’t just the use of TikTok. It’s in the 𝘸𝘢𝘺 they use it.

To GenZ, it’s not just about entertainment. It’s an ‘everything’ platform. Studies tell us that TikTok is the preferred search engine for nearly 2/3 of Gen Z. 

Any prediction we make has to start with the idea that the behavior remains.

2. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸. It’s important note exactly what happens on January 19. The app simply has to be removed from the App Store.

Users that still have the app downloaded can continue to use it until a lack of updates eventually makes it unusable.

This leaves room for the sale of TikTok, or perhaps some other type of deal.

3. 𝗪𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗲𝗿𝗮. TikTok isn’t the only short form show in town.

Gen Z is still using YouTube and Instagram. Just to a lesser extent.

Both platforms, as well as others, have prioritized short form video over the past year or so.

In the absence of another competitor, this where GenZ drifts if TikTok eventually goes away.

If you’ve invested in TikTok, you should be able to dominate a replacement to TikTok.

4. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗹. Given what the clock really looks like, there’s still plenty of time for a deal. 

Here are some potential outcomes that could save TikTok:

1. The sale of TikTok to a US company.

2. Repeal of the legislation that was signed this year.

3. An interim deal crafted by the incoming administration.

4. A technical solution that extends the life of the app.

So what does this mean to you?

If you 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘯’𝘵 invested in TikTok:

Give it a couple of weeks. 

You’ve waited this long.

If you 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 invested in TikTok:

Keep those feet moving. 

The competition will take their foot off the gas.

There’s probably an arbitrage here.

Either way, there’s no reason for panic.

Whatever the outcome, it doesn’t materialize on January 19.

We’ve still got some time on the clock.

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